Literally nothing in the world more boring than those financial “education” pieces that point out that if you don’t buy a coffee every morning for ten years you’ll be able to buy a yacht.
Lots to unpack here and many of these points you cover get casually glossed over in society.
See for me it’s not the vice of gambling but the binge that undoes people. If the Marquis de Sade could have kept his floggings down to one a week the authorities would have probably left him alone. But no the binge did for him.
There’s also another couple of aspects and that is that most people who bet don’t understand how to work out positive expected value. If you bet with no edge there’s basically no point in the long run.
I also really fear for people who binge gamble and have such activities on their bank statements. The underwriters of insurance and especially credit lending facilities (mortgages and the likes of) frown heavily on gamblers.
Mate, would you lend 100k to an unsuccessful gambler hoping to get it back? Not unless you coukd take their house from them…
There are traps everywhere and the network effect of gambling markets and smart phones is the biggest trap of all.
Phil, given we basically agree on everything you will be unsurprised to hear I agree with everything you say.
The public/almost everyone is horrible at handicapping probability. We see this in investing all the time.
Stock going up = lower expected return = BUY
Stock going down = higher expected return = SELL
And to your point about binging I am increasingly of the view there is no such thing as good or bad spending, eating, gambling etc. Just conscious and unconscious. If we are aware of what we are doing and the downsides - fine, but the danger occurs when it becomes an automatic semi conscious activity.
Gambling apps on smart phones - I’m not sure there is any positive societal value there, or can ever be.
Lots to unpack here and many of these points you cover get casually glossed over in society.
See for me it’s not the vice of gambling but the binge that undoes people. If the Marquis de Sade could have kept his floggings down to one a week the authorities would have probably left him alone. But no the binge did for him.
There’s also another couple of aspects and that is that most people who bet don’t understand how to work out positive expected value. If you bet with no edge there’s basically no point in the long run.
I also really fear for people who binge gamble and have such activities on their bank statements. The underwriters of insurance and especially credit lending facilities (mortgages and the likes of) frown heavily on gamblers.
Mate, would you lend 100k to an unsuccessful gambler hoping to get it back? Not unless you coukd take their house from them…
There are traps everywhere and the network effect of gambling markets and smart phones is the biggest trap of all.
Phil, given we basically agree on everything you will be unsurprised to hear I agree with everything you say.
The public/almost everyone is horrible at handicapping probability. We see this in investing all the time.
Stock going up = lower expected return = BUY
Stock going down = higher expected return = SELL
And to your point about binging I am increasingly of the view there is no such thing as good or bad spending, eating, gambling etc. Just conscious and unconscious. If we are aware of what we are doing and the downsides - fine, but the danger occurs when it becomes an automatic semi conscious activity.
Gambling apps on smart phones - I’m not sure there is any positive societal value there, or can ever be.
Great differentiation around conscious and unconscious David - writes across many arears of life as you say
Really good point about consciousness there. Absolutely agree.